Good Morning:
Yesterday Friday April 17, 2020 was a ONE Green Arrow Day.
We get quite a bit of feedback from readers and often times the following day’s post reflect their thoughts and address their questions.
What we know:
1) Regional: COVID-19 has regional concentrations, as the data shows the NYC / Boston corridor has the highest number and cases per 100,000 (over 1,000) than any other parts of our country. States like NC (59), Texas (62) and Ohio (78) have a relatively low number.
2) Select High Risk groups: The virus effects various categories of people differently. The higher risk groups fall into the +65 with diabetes and most likely other underlying health conditions. Most experts believe more than 50% of those that contract the disease have very mild or no symptoms at all. Stanford recently did a study that there are actually multiple times more cases than reported…and, they believe, that’s a good thing because is shows that the vast majority of cases are mild and impact less, relatively, than the statistics show.
3) Cause of spread: The best information we have stresses the virus is transmitted via prolonged contact (15 to 20 min) of a contaminated surface. Hence the MIT study conclusion that NYC subways are a fecund for the virus.
4) Denominator is much bigger: Nobody really knows how many people in the US either have contacted the virus or have it. For example, those being tested almost always are those that either believe they have the virus or are directed so by a physician. Those that don’t feel sick (even though they may have a mild or no symptom case) don’t take the test. This means the statistics have that bias.
5) Health Care System: Generally, our health care system is capable of handling the cases going forward based upon current numbers. It may be stretched in the high concentration areas, but hospital models show the capability of handling the sick.
6) The Curve Has Flattened: As you can see from charts and other sources of data, the rates of infection have dramatically dropped. Less than a month ago US infection rates were in the mid to upper 30’s and over the last several days have dropped to under 5%.
As time goes on, we are learning more about the virus, which people are mor vulnerable and how to better treat the them.
We certainly have the best scientific, medical and analytical people focused on COVID-19 and how to best handle the next steps. Of course, there is more than an abundance of media attention to ensure we are kept apprised, of what’s going on. Many readers have commented on either too much attention or not enough attention to the progress we are making. Unfortunately, this post can find any objective data regarding the media, so we can’t measure trends, etc.
With the prospects of opening up the economy a federal / state / regional / local approach regarding guidelines appears to make sense because of “what we know.” In other words a “one size shoe for all” doesn’t.
Enjoy your day
BTW…let me know if you would like others included in these posts.